1. The Miami Heat will not win the East
-Whether the East falls to Orlando, Chicago, or Boston, Miami will not win the top spot. All three members of the new Big Three are about to learn what it means to be the target of the league night in and night out. None of these three players (even Wade after his championship) has ever truly been the target of all teams in their conference, let alone the league. Every single night, the Heat will play against inspired teams determined to match themselves up to the best of their abilities. This is a draining process. Only truly focused teams that have their roles and selves figured out are able to beat this pressure. Los Angeles, San Antonio, and Boston are the only teams that currently have shown ability to beat that kind of pressure. The Miami Heat have enough on their plates figuring out what kind of offense they want to run, how they want to defend, who will take shots, who will get minutes off the bench, and especially how to handle defeat together to be able to win every night this season. Next season? All bets are off. For this season, however, the adjustment to becoming the measuring stick for the NBA will derail their number of regular season victories enough that they will not earn homecourt throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, let alone challenge the 70 win season the Chicago Bulls of '95 put up.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers will not win homecourt in the West
-The Lakers will struggle to find an identity this season early. For the oldest team in the NBA, this season will prove challenging. Kobe's injuries are well documented and he hasn't appeared on top of his game since the Western Conference Finals last spring. For all but one quarter of the NBA Finals last spring, Kobe was not on top of his game. In Game 7, he shot 6-24 while battling fatigue, injury, and a swarming Boston defense. In the preseason following arthroscopic knee surgery, Kobe has shot 4-22, making him 10 for his last 46 shots. Bynum historically struggles with health every season, as well. Artest is another year older, and it is possible that his experiences with LA last season will help him this season since he is more comfortable, it could easily lead to more confidence in his abilities and more forced or poorly chosen shots. The addition of Matt Barnes adds another quality defender and three point threat in the mold of Trevor Ariza, but Barnes causes the Lakers to violate the well documented rule of not allowing more than one major knucklehead on any one team unless you want them to hang out. Since joining the Lakers, Barnes has already run into trouble. The only way that the Lakers really improved themselves was with the addition of Steve Blake, and excellent backup to Fisher and perhaps eventual starter.
However, the addition Blake will not allow the Lakers to overcome the fatigue that comes with back to back championships, especially since last year's Finals were so incredibly draining both physically and mentally. A three peat is incredibly rare for multiple reasons. It's hard to keep as motivated to win a third championship and other teams gun for you more. In all three of Phil Jackson's first three peats, the team won the fewest games among the three champions in its three years. A letdown in the regular season is almost assured. This doesn't mean the Lakers aren't the favorites to win the championship, it merely means they will struggle to win home court.
3. The Boston Celtics will be rejuvenated by the additions of JO, Shaq, and West
-The biggest problems for the Celtics a year ago were lack of depth and rebounding. Both of those problems were soundly addressed in the offseason, leading this season's bench for the C's towards an offseason haul which makes it the deepest this team has seen since the arrival of the Big Three. Once Perkins arrives and retakes his starting spot, the Celtics will trot off in some order Shaquille O'Neal (still a dominant low post scorer and rebounder in stretches), Jermaine O'Neal (above average rebounder and defender), Delonte West (quality three point shooter, potential backup for Rondo, Pierce, and Allen, and first swingman since Posey left), Nate Robinson (showed the athleticism and scoring threat the Celtics envisioned by trading for him last postseason), Glen Davis (huge energy rebounder and scorer), Marquis Daniels (when healthy a lockdown defender whom can easily replace Tony Allen), Sam Erden (7 foot European with the classic touch of a big man from Europe), and Avery Bradley (one of the most explosive athletes in this year's draft and a potential backup for Rondo or Allen). Unless there is a huge wave of injuries, this team will be able to churn out productive players at a rate much higher than any other team in the NBA.
By all accounts, Kevin Garnett has finally fully recovered from his knee injuries of two years ago. He has shown the explosiveness and swagger that have defined his career in training camp and in the preseason, even being ejected in a preseason game. KG continues to be the Celtics most important player, as his defense and leadership drive this team's engine. A completely healthy KG would have completely swung the outcome of the Finals last year. He ran out of gas. This year, that won't be a problem. He'll be back to as close as he can be to the defensive player of the year the Celtics saw in his first year with the team.
Rondo will also continue to improve. The only thing standing in his way at this point is shooting. He drastically improved on it last year, and I expect the same this year. He has improved from year to year with such startling consistency it would be a true shock if he didn't follow the pattern again this season. For a fan that watched this young man come of age against the Phoenix Suns in 2008, he has done nothing but make me proud. He is probably at this point our best player, and having backups for him this year will make the difference for him the postseason, where he appeared to gradually lose steam.
4. The MVP is Kevin Durant's to lose
-This offseason ruined the goodwill towards Lebron James. In a race of two (sorry Dwyane and Kobe) for best player in the world, perception can make a world of difference. Lebron will also be hurt statistically by the presence of his two new teammates. He may get more assists, but his points will go down by at least 5 a game. Meanwhile, Durant won his country a medal in stunning fashion while all of the rest of the world's best players decided to take the summer off. He's shown charisma, leadership, a humble nature, and more hard work than any man not named Kobe Bryant in some time. He will improve on his game from last season, and at 22 will win his first MVP this season as long as something disastrous doesn't happen.
5. The Cleveland Cavaliers will make the NBA playoffs this season without Lebron
-This team will find a swelling of support from its fan base when it opens the season hungry and motivated to win. Rather than being demoralized by the loss of their prima dona star, the team will rally around itself and show the quality that is littered across this roster. Losing Shaq, West, Lebron, and Big Z leaves this team a "shell" of its former self. However, a team does not win 67 games because of one player. They won those games with great defense and enough quality shooting to bother any team in the NBA. They also still boast a deep and quality depth of big men with Varejao, Hickson, Powe, and Jamison. Byron Scott is the perfect coach for this team, as he will squeeze out the best of this teams' abilities.
It's going to be a wild, fantastic season. No matter the result of this season, it will be one of the greatest in the history of the NBA. The coronation of the new Big Three is premature and ill conceived, but will add a layer to the drama inherent in the game itself. Since the day the ball was first tossed up, this game has provided a different and more dramatic experience to its fans than the other major professional sports, and this season will be the best of them all.
